Zambia today is not where it was in 2021. But it is also not yet where it could be. After time on the ground in Lusaka — speaking with business leaders, consultants, lawyers, tech founders, and yes, taxi drivers — one impression stands out: this is a market in transition. Progress is real, but fragile. Opportunity exists, but unevenly felt.
Macro: Quiet Progress, Cautious Optimism
Zambia’s macroeconomic story walks a fine line. Important structural moves have been made, but most citizens are not yet feeling the lift.
Debt restructuring is underway following the 2021 Eurobond default. Though complex and drawn out, the process has sparked cautious optimism in the business community. Mining, the backbone of Zambia’s economy, is recovering — with copper and even gold production on the rise. One executive described the momentum in the “New Copperbelt” as the most exciting industrial shift in decades.
Yet everyday life remains tough. Inflation has stabilized, but prices for essentials such as mealie meal and fuel remain high. As one business owner put it:
“The President is a businessman. He’s making money, but he doesn’t block others from doing the same.”
Zambia feels open for business. But the benefits are not evenly spread.
Politics: Calm Before the 2026 Storm?
With elections scheduled for August 2026, the political atmosphere is beginning to shift.
The government has reduced prices of key commodities, citing improved supply and lower input costs. Many, however, suspect pre-election subsidies are making a quiet return — a familiar feature of Zambian election cycles.
Among the business leaders we met, the administration is broadly seen as stable and business-friendly, if imperfect. As one advisor summed it up:
“Things are much better than in 2021, but they could still do better.”
Expect tactical moves in the run-up to 2026 — fuel price cuts, policy nudges, and short-term relief measures. The question remains whether these will evolve into lasting structural reforms.
Business and Investment: New Copperbelt, Old Challenges
Across conversations — from law firms to SMEs — three themes emerged: mining, consumer activity, and capital.
Mining remains Zambia’s economic heartbeat. Fresh global interest in copper and gold is drawing new investment. “If the mining sector sneezes, everyone catches a cough,” one executive noted.
Consumer confidence shows tentative signs of recovery. Supermarkets and breweries, often barometers of household spending, report improving demand. It is a small but important signal of resilience.
The bigger bottleneck is capital. While mining operations are attracting foreign investment, financing for surrounding infrastructure — from transport to housing to energy — remains scarce. Much of the available funding is either short-term or highly risk-sensitive. Zambia’s long-term growth depends on unlocking patient capital.
With a population of 20 million expected to grow significantly in the coming decades, the opportunity is clear. But it requires matching long-dated needs with the right kind of capital.
Weather, Waterfalls, and Economic Fragility
Zambia’s natural beauty remains a global draw. The mighty Mosi-oa-Tunya — Victoria Falls — was full and roaring this season. Tourism is strong.
But weather is not only about waterfalls. A severe drought two years ago disrupted hydroelectric power, forcing widespread load shedding that crippled agriculture, manufacturing, and mining. With over 85% of electricity coming from hydropower, Zambia remains deeply vulnerable to climate shocks.
The lesson is stark: no rain means no power, and no power means no growth. Energy diversification is not just a policy priority; it is an economic necessity.
Final Thought: A Market in Transition
Zambia in 2025 feels calm on the surface, but change is underway beneath. Debt restructuring, mining momentum, and political stability offer a foundation. Yet questions remain: Will reforms translate into inclusive growth? Will capital flow beyond mining? Will resilience outpace vulnerability?
For investors and business leaders, Zambia is a market where seeds have been planted. The real test will be what grows — and who is willing to nurture it over the long term.
Takeaway
Zambia is recalibrating. The direction is positive, but the path remains uncertain. For those prepared to look past short-term turbulence, opportunities in mining, infrastructure, and consumer markets are real — if matched with patience and the right partnerships.
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At Lissom Advisory, we help leaders interpret signals from Africa’s shifting markets. Through our Emerging Market Leadership & Strategy Program, we support decision-makers in translating fragile progress into durable opportunity.
Written by Art Chupeau, Founder & Managing Partner at Lissom Advisory.