Zambia today is not where it was in 2021. But it is also not yet where it could be. After time on the ground in Lusaka \u2014 speaking with business leaders, consultants, lawyers, tech founders, and yes, taxi drivers \u2014 one impression stands out: this is a market in transition. Progress is real, but fragile. Opportunity exists, but unevenly felt.<\/p>\n
Zambia\u2019s macroeconomic story walks a fine line. Important structural moves have been made, but most citizens are not yet feeling the lift.<\/p>\n
Debt restructuring is underway following the 2021 Eurobond default. Though complex and drawn out, the process has sparked cautious optimism in the business community. Mining, the backbone of Zambia\u2019s economy, is recovering \u2014 with copper and even gold production on the rise. One executive described the momentum in the \u201cNew Copperbelt\u201d as the most exciting industrial shift in decades.<\/p>\n
Yet everyday life remains tough. Inflation has stabilized, but prices for essentials such as mealie meal and fuel remain high. As one business owner put it:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cThe President is a businessman. He\u2019s making money, but he doesn\u2019t block others from doing the same.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Zambia feels open for business. But the benefits are not evenly spread.<\/p>\n
Politics: Calm Before the 2026 Storm?<\/h2>\n
With elections scheduled for August 2026, the political atmosphere is beginning to shift.<\/p>\n
The government has reduced prices of key commodities, citing improved supply and lower input costs. Many, however, suspect pre-election subsidies are making a quiet return \u2014 a familiar feature of Zambian election cycles.<\/p>\n
Among the business leaders we met, the administration is broadly seen as stable and business-friendly, if imperfect. As one advisor summed it up:<\/p>\n
\n\u201cThings are much better than in 2021, but they could still do better.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Expect tactical moves in the run-up to 2026 \u2014 fuel price cuts, policy nudges, and short-term relief measures. The question remains whether these will evolve into lasting structural reforms.<\/p>\n
Business and Investment: New Copperbelt, Old Challenges<\/h2>\n
Across conversations \u2014 from law firms to SMEs \u2014 three themes emerged: mining, consumer activity, and capital.<\/p>\n
Mining remains Zambia\u2019s economic heartbeat. Fresh global interest in copper and gold is drawing new investment. \u201cIf the mining sector sneezes, everyone catches a cough,\u201d one executive noted.<\/p>\n
Consumer confidence shows tentative signs of recovery. Supermarkets and breweries, often barometers of household spending, report improving demand. It is a small but important signal of resilience.<\/p>\n
The bigger bottleneck is capital. While mining operations are attracting foreign investment, financing for surrounding infrastructure \u2014 from transport to housing to energy \u2014 remains scarce. Much of the available funding is either short-term or highly risk-sensitive. Zambia\u2019s long-term growth depends on unlocking patient capital.<\/p>\n
With a population of 20 million expected to grow significantly in the coming decades, the opportunity is clear. But it requires matching long-dated needs with the right kind of capital.<\/p>\n
Weather, Waterfalls, and Economic Fragility<\/h2>\n
Zambia\u2019s natural beauty remains a global draw. The mighty Mosi-oa-Tunya \u2014 Victoria Falls \u2014 was full and roaring this season. Tourism is strong.<\/p>\n
But weather is not only about waterfalls. A severe drought two years ago disrupted hydroelectric power, forcing widespread load shedding that crippled agriculture, manufacturing, and mining. With over 85% of electricity coming from hydropower, Zambia remains deeply vulnerable to climate shocks.<\/p>\n
The lesson is stark: no rain means no power, and no power means no growth. Energy diversification is not just a policy priority; it is an economic necessity.<\/p>\n
Final Thought: A Market in Transition<\/h2>\n
Zambia in 2025 feels calm on the surface, but change is underway beneath. Debt restructuring, mining momentum, and political stability offer a foundation. Yet questions remain: Will reforms translate into inclusive growth? Will capital flow beyond mining? Will resilience outpace vulnerability?<\/p>\n
For investors and business leaders, Zambia is a market where seeds have been planted. The real test will be what grows \u2014 and who is willing to nurture it over the long term.<\/p>\n
Takeaway<\/h2>\n
Zambia is recalibrating. The direction is positive, but the path remains uncertain. For those prepared to look past short-term turbulence, opportunities in mining, infrastructure, and consumer markets are real \u2014 if matched with patience and the right partnerships.<\/p>\n
—<\/h2>\n
At Lissom Advisory, we help leaders interpret signals from Africa\u2019s shifting markets. Through our Emerging Market Leadership & Strategy Program<\/strong>, we support decision-makers in translating fragile progress into durable opportunity.<\/p>\n
Written by Art Chupeau, Founder & Managing Partner at Lissom Advisory.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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